The largest
possible tsunami storm is approaching us. We are facing an increasingly bleak
reality as a result of this perfect storm, and it is quite understandable that
we do so with the full conviction that technology can help us solve our
problems.
As our
population approaches 10 billion, more and more land is turning into desert,
and, of course, climate change, all of these factors are contributing to the
perfect storm we are currently seeing.
There is no
longer any doubt at all: we will only use technology to address the issue of
replacing fossil fuels.
But there are
numerous more factors contributing to climate change besides fossil fuels,
carbon, coal, and gas.
Land that is
becoming a desert is referred to as desertification, and this only occurs when
we leave too much bare ground. There isn't another reason.
There are places
where humidity is constant all year round.
On those, it is
nearly impossible to make sizable bare ground regions. No matter what you
accomplish, nature quickly undoes it.
Desertification
is taking place in areas where there are months of humidity followed by months
of dryness.
Fortunately,
modern space technology allows us to view it from space, and when we do, you
may reasonably discern the proportions.
Generally
speaking, the places that are green are not desertifying,
but the parts that are brown are, and these are by far the largest regions on
Earth.
This photo was
taken in the Tihamah Desert as 25 millimetres, or an inch, of rain was falling;
around two thirds of the world is decertifying.
Consider
200-liter water drums as a metaphor for this situation.
Every hectare of
that area received more than 1,000 water drums that day.
The landscape
looked like this the following day. What had happened to that water? While some
of it flooded, the majority of the water that permeated the soil simply drained
away, just like it would in your garden if you left the soil exposed.
Now that water
and carbon fates are intertwined with soil organic matter, soil degradation
results in the release of carbon. Returned to the atmosphere is carbon.
Only arid and
semi-arid regions of the planet are experiencing desertification, while tall
grasslands with high rainfall rates like this one are unimportant.
The majority of
the soil in the grassland you just saw, however, is barren and covered in an
algal crust, which increases runoff and evaporation. If you stare at grasslands
instead of down into them instead.
That is the
cancer of desertification, which we do not detect until it has reached its
final stage.
We now
understand that livestock, mostly cattle, sheep, and goats, overgraze the
vegetation, stripping the soil bare, and emitting methane as a result.
From Nobel
laureates to golf caddies, almost everyone is either aware of or was taught
this.
Now, consider
the arid landscapes in Africa that you can see here.
National parks
like this one are most affected by desertification in Africa.
Furthermore,
this region has been devoid of livestock for more than 70 years. Where this
grassland was green in 1961, it had become that by 2002.
It is obvious
that we have never fully comprehended the causes of desertification, which has
wiped out numerous civilizations and today poses a threat to all of humanity.
If you take one
square metre of dirt and leave it naked like this, I can assure you that it
will be significantly cooler at morning and significantly hotter at noon than
the same area of ground if it is only covered with plant litter.
The microclimate
has been altered by you. By the time you are doing that and significantly
increasing the amount of bare terrain on more than half of the planet's
territory, your macroclimate is shifting.
However, we
still do not fully comprehend why it started to occur 10,000 years ago. Why did
it suddenly pick up speed? We didn't comprehend that at all.
What we had
overlooked was the fact that the soil, vegetation, and seasonal humid habitats
of the Earth all originated in conjunction with massive herds of grazing
animals and formidable pack-hunting predators. Currently, joining herds is the
primary method of protection against predators that hunt in packs; the larger
the herd, the safer the individuals are.
vast herds now
urinate and crap all over their own food, but because of their constant
movement, which allows us to see where a herd has passed, vast herds were able
to prevent overgrazing of plants.
A typical
seasonal grassland is shown in this image. Four months of rain have just
passed, and eight months of dry weather are about to begin.
And observe the
transformation as it enters this protracted dry season. Now, all of the grass
you can see above ground needs to biologically decompose before the following
growing season; otherwise, the grassland and the soil start to deteriorate.
If it doesn't
decompose biologically, it switches to oxidation, a very slow process that
kills grasses and causes woody plants and bare soil to grow instead, which
releases carbon.
We have
traditionally employed fire to stop that. Furthermore, burning one hectare of
grassland releases more harmful pollutants than 6,000 cars, leaving the earth
naked and releasing carbon.
And every year,
we burn more than a billion hectares of grasslands in Africa, and almost anyone
talks about it.
As scientists,
we can defend the burning because it does clear the dead matter and promote
plant growth.
What could we do
to maintain the health of this grassland that has dried up in our area?
Remember that I am currently discussing the majority of the world's territory.
Without
contributing to desertification and climate change, we cannot reduce animal
populations to make them relax more.
We cannot burn
it without contributing to climate change and desertification. What will we do
next? Scientists and climatologists are left with no choice but to imitate
nature by using herds and predators as a stand-in for livestock that is
gathered and migrating.
There is
no other alternative left to mankind.
Let's do that,
then. We'll do it on this patch of grassland, but only in the foreground. In
order to emulate nature, we will have a significant impact on it; have a look
at that.
Every gardener
among you would realise that all of that grass is now covering the soil as
dung, pee, litter, or mulch, and that soil is prepared to absorb and hold rain,
to store carbon, and to break down methane.
And we did
that, without using fire to damage the soil, and the plants are free
to grow.
It was obvious
that more was required than just bunching and moving the animals, and humans
had never been able to handle nature's complexity over thousands of years.
But biologists and ecologists had never tackled anything as complex
as this.
This region is
entering the lengthy dry season after receiving four months of exceptionally
strong rains that year.
However, as you can see, practically all of
that rain has evaporated off the soil's surface.
Despite the rain
having just stopped, their river is dry, and 150,000 people are receiving food
assistance on a nearly constant basis.
Now let's travel
to our nearby land on the same day and examine that with the same amount of
precipitation.
Our river is tidal, wholesome, and pure.
We no longer
have much concern about dry years because everything is now more productive,
including grass, shrubs, trees, and wildlife.
And we did it by
expanding the number of cattle and goats by 400%, designing the grazing to
resemble nature, and integrating them with all of our other animals, including
elephants, buffalo, giraffes, and other species.
But that's how our land
appeared before we started. No matter how much rain we had, this location has
been barren and degrading for more than 30 years.
Watch the marked
tree and see the change as we use livestock to mimic nature.
At the base of the tiny tree
that was identified, we had lost more than 30 centimetres of soil at this
place, which had also been bare and eroding.
And again, watch the
change just using livestock to mimic nature.
Additionally,
there are now some downed trees there as a result of the better terrain now
luring elephants and other animals. This property in Mexico was in awful shape,
and I had to label the hill because of how drastically things have changed.
The vast
grasslands of Patagonia are turning to desert as you see here.
The man in the
centre is an Argentine researcher who has recorded the gradual degradation of
that area over the years as they continued to reduce the quantity of sheep.
With scheduled
grazing and 25,000 sheep in one flock, they're actually imitating nature, and
they've seen a 50% boost in the land's productivity in the first year.
In the Horn of
Africa, pastoralists freely admit that their imitation of natural grazing
patterns is their best chance of preserving their culture and their families.
Ninety-five
percent of that land can only feed people from animals.
I should
probably remind you that I'm talking about the majority of the planet's land
here, which determines our fate, including the world's most violent area, where
only animals can feed people from around 95% of the land. I think that what we
are doing on a global scale is contributing to climate change just as much as,
if not more than, fossil fuels.
But much worse
than that, it's fueling war, social unrest, violence, starvation, and poverty,
and as I speak to you, millions of men, women, and children are suffering and
perishing as a result.
And if this
continues, we are unlikely to be able to stop the climate
changing, even after we have eliminated the use of fossil fuels.
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